• Source: 2024 California Proposition 32

Proposition 32 was a California ballot proposition that was voted on as part of the 2024 California elections on November 5. As of 20 November 2024, around 51% of tallied votes had voted "no". The results remained too close to call for several weeks after election day; the Associated Press called the race on November 20 and, as of 21 November 2024, CNN still projected it as too close to call. If it had passed, the proposition would have enacted the Living Wage Act of 2022 which would have increased the state's minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2025 and adjusted it every year to reduce the impact of inflation.




Background



US states can set their own minimum wages if they choose to do so, with the federal minimum wage being used if a minimum wage is not set or if it is set below the federal level. In California, the state minimum wage as of January 1, 2024 was $16 per hour. As of July 2024, California had the highest minimum wage of any state and was the highest in the country except for some part of New York (which also have a $16/hour minimum wage) and the District of Columbia (which has a minimum wage of $17.50/hour). Despite this, California's minimum wage "lags far behind the state's prices"; as of October 2024, the statewide living wage is $27.32 per hour.
The federal minimum wage has remained $7.25/hour since 2009, leading to a movement for a $15 minimum wage during the 2010s. Due to high inflation in the early 2020s and stalemate at the federal level, more focus has been placed on increasing state minimum wages.




= 2022 proposition attempt

=
The proposition was initially set to be included in the 2022 California elections, but was delayed after the California Secretary of State announced that not enough signatures had been verified for it to qualify. Propositions needed 700,000 signatures to be on the ballot; although the campaign said it had gathered 1,000,000 signatures, because it only submitted them in May, not all the signatures could be verified by the June 30 deadline. Joe Sanberg, the proposition's filer, filed a court case to have the proposition put on the ballot, but this was rejected in July 2022 with the proposition instead confirmed for the 2024 elections.




Campaign


Politico reported in April 2024 that the proposition had been "met so far with shrugs" from unions and business interest groups predominantly because piecemeal industry-by-industry increases to the minimum wage had meant that "it is hard to find anyone who wants to fight over $18".
A survey by the University of Southern California found that people from households earning under $50,000 a year were most likely to support the proposition, and those from households earning over $100,000 were most likely to oppose it.




= Support

=
Many supporters focused on the rising cost of living. In its endorsement, The Sacramento Bee said it was not ignoring "the concerns of business leaders" but that "too many workers can't afford to live on their wages". The Mercury News and East Bay Times joint endorsement highlighted that $18 is "still not a living wage" for workers in California and "certainly not in the Bay Area."
Proponents disputed the idea that higher minimum wages cause job losses. The Los Angeles Times argued that "higher wages actually make it easier for employers to fill job vacancies and retain workers" and that Proposition 32 was "a reasonable and narrow measure" that focuses on those who "are most in need of a boost". A study from UC Berkeley found that California's increase to a $15 minimum wage had "no significant" effect on unemployment levels.
Saru Jayaraman, president of One Fair Wage, said that opposition campaigning had scared some voters, but that "[n]one of the doom and gloom that they predicted turned out to be true" in the case of the increased minimum wage for fast food workers.



Funding

Joe Sanberg was a major donor to the proposition during the 2022 cycle, spending $10 million to get it on the ballot. In April 2024, Politico reported that Sanberg had "not raised a dime for the effort in months" and said he was "banking on the inherent appeal" of a higher minimum wage.
In the 2024 cycle, as of 5 November 2024, $948,000 had been raised in support of the proposition. Almost all of this was by Kevin de León, who had raised more than $800,000.



Endorsements





= Opposition

=
Opponents argued that a higher minimum wage would lead to increased prices. The San Diego Union-Tribune called on voters to use the proposition "as a referendum on how California is being governed" and argued that "[j]ust as Trumpian tariffs make life more expensive, so do mandatory wage hikes".
High unemployment was also a concern. The Press-Telegram warned that approving Proposition 32 would "make many low-skill workers unemployable". Opponents highlighted surveys commissed by the city of West Hollywood, which had implemented a local minimum wage of $19.08/hour, found that 42% of responding businesses had laid off workers or reduced hours due to higher wages.



Funding

By early October, the opposition campaign had raised $65,000. The California Growers Association and California Chamber of Commerce had contributed $15,000 each; the California Retailers Association, the National Federation of Independent Business and the Western Growers Service Corporation donated $10,000 each; and the California Restaurant Association had contributed $5,000.
As of 5 November 2024, $855,000 had been raised in opposition to the measure. The largest donor was Western Growers Issues PAC, a political action committee, which had spent $250,000.



Endorsements





= Neutral/No endorsement

=




Polling






= On Proposition 32

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= On an $18 minimum wage

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Results


As of 21 November 2024, around 93% of the estimated total vote had been reported, and 7,505,848 votes (50.8%) had voted "no" and 7,265,456 votes (49.2%) had voted "yes". The election was initially characterised as being too close to call, with Politico reporting on 11 November that five million votes remained uncounted mostly in Alameda, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Los Angeles counties. The Associated Press called the election on 20 November, projecting that the proposition had failed. As of 21 November 2024, CNN still projected the race to be too close to call.
The proposition was the first statewide ballot measure raising the minimum wage in the U.S. to be rejected since 1996.




Notes






References

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