- Source: Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election
Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.
The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.
Party vote and key events
Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
= Graphical summary
=The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.
= Individual polls
== Internal polls
=These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.
Preferred prime minister
= Graphical summary
== Individual polls
=Electorate polling
= Ōhāriu
=Party vote
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.
Candidate vote
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.
= Waiariki
=Party vote
Candidate vote
= The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)
=* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.
= Whangarei
=Party vote
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.
Candidate vote
= Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
=Party vote
Candidate vote
= Te Tai Hauāuru
=Party vote
Candidate vote
= Te Tai Tonga
=Party vote
Candidate vote
= Hauraki-Waikato
=Party vote
Candidate vote
= Tāmaki Makaurau
=Party vote
Candidate vote
= Te Tai Tokerau
=Party vote
Candidate vote
Forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Māori retains Waiariki, Labour retains Te Tai Tokerau, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.
Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy. Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.
* indicates an overhang seat
New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.
See also
Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election
Politics of New Zealand
Notes
References
Kata Kunci Pencarian:
- Pemilihan umum Presiden Indonesia 2024
- Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election
- 2017 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
- 2023 New Zealand general election
- 2020 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2002 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 1993 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 1999 New Zealand general election
