- Source: Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The general election took place on 14 October 2023.
Party vote
= Nationwide polling
=Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (TPM), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), New Conservative (NCP), and New Zealand Loyal (NZL). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.
General electorates
= Auckland Central
== Ilam
== Napier
== Northland
=Electorate vote
= Tāmaki
== Tauranga
=An opinion poll was held in the Tauranga electorate prior to the June 2022 Tauranga by-election. The by-election was won by National's Sam Uffindell.
= Wellington Central
=Māori electorates
= Hauraki-Waikato
== Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
=Electorate vote
Party vote
= Tāmaki Makaurau
=Electorate vote
Party vote
= Te Tai Hauāuru
=Party vote
= Te Tai Tokerau
=Party vote
= Te Tai Tonga
=Electorate vote
Party vote
= Waiariki
=Electorate vote
Party vote
Preferred prime minister
Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table and graph, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls.
Government approval rating
The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.
Forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.
On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice". In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election. Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi. On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori. On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner.
See also
2020 New Zealand general election
Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
Politics of New Zealand
Notes
References
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- Pemilihan umum Presiden Indonesia 2024
- Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election
- 2023 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
- Next New Zealand general election
- 2020 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2002 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 1993 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 1996 New Zealand general election
