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      • The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
      As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election subsequent to 1988, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008. In 2020, the state broke 57%–41% for Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware. The state was heavily favored to be carried by the Democrats by forecasters.
      New Jersey was won by the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. However, she won the state by 5.9 points, significantly smaller than Biden's 16-point win in 2020. This is the first time since the 2004 presidential election that the Democratic nominee won the state with a single digit margin of victory, and Republican nominee Donald Trump's 46% vote share in New Jersey is on par with George W. Bush's performance in 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning the state's electoral votes since George H. W. Bush in 1992. New Jersey also had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York, owing largely to poor Democratic turnout compared to 2020 and 2016. New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California, and Illinois in seeing significant rightward trends in 2024.
      Trump's over 1.96 million votes is the most received by a Republican in a presidential election in the state's history, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 1.93 million votes from 1984.


      Primary elections




      = Democratic primary

      =

      The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.


      = Republican primary

      =

      The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.


      General election




      = Predictions

      =


      = Polling

      =
      Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump


      = Results

      =


      By county




      Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican


      Atlantic (largest municipality: Egg Harbor Township)
      Cumberland (largest municipality: Vineland)
      Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
      Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)
      Passaic (largest municipality: Paterson)


      By congressional district


      Harris won 8 of 12 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Trump, including one that elected a Democrat.


      By State Legislative District


      Harris won 25 of 40 State Legislative districts. Harris carried 3 districts (2nd, 8th, 21st) represented by Republican senators, while Trump carried 3 districts represented by Democratic Senators (3rd, 36th, 38th).


      Analysis


      Trump retook Gloucester County and Morris County, which he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. Additionally, Trump is the first Republican to win Passaic County since 1992, as well as Atlantic County and Cumberland County since 1988, while also being the first Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the state's counties since 1992.
      With this election, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli's strong performance in the 2021 gubernatorial election, some analysts believe New Jersey has transitioned from a reliable blue state into a potential swing state. The concurrent Senate race also lends this theory some legitimacy, as Kim was polling 20 points ahead of Bashaw in aggregates, but only won by 9.4%, a smaller margin than Menendez received in 2018 at 11.2%.


      See also


      United States presidential elections in New Jersey
      2024 United States presidential election
      2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
      2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
      2024 United States elections


      Notes



      Partisan clients


      References

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