8.408
6
5.982
6.9
7.038
7
6.902
5.6
7.9
6.3
7.263
5.5
6.793
6
6.7
Artikel: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election GudangMovies21 Rebahinxxi
- Source: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The opinion polls listed range from the previous election on 12 December 2019 to the election on Thursday, 4 July 2024.
Graphical summaries
The Conservatives led the polls for the two years following the 2019 general election, which included Brexit, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine rollout during the leadership of Boris Johnson. Labour took a lead following the Partygate scandal and maintained this through the Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak premierships until the 2024 election.
Guide to tables
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a poll result is a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded and displayed in bold.
"Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom, namely the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Greens, and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland. The three parties share a commitment to environmental policies, but are independent of one another, with each contesting elections only in its own region.
The polling company ComRes was acquired by Savanta in July 2019. It was rebranded as Savanta ComRes in November 2019 and as Savanta in December 2022. In August 2023, the market research company Omnisis rebranded its public polling arm as We Think. In October 2023, the Norstat group acquired Panelbase. In November 2023, Kantar Public rebranded to Verian. None of these organisational changes entailed changes in methodology.
National poll results
Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party (SNP) only stand candidates in Scotland.
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When compared to the result, the final week of polls on average underestimated the Conservative and Lib Dem vote shares and overestimated the Labour and Reform vote shares. The projected SNP and Green vote shares were largely accurate.
= 2023
=
= 2022
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= 2021
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= 2020
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Non-geographical samples
The following polls sampled subsets of voters according to particular characteristics from across the UK or Great Britain.
= Ethnic minority voters
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= Muslim voters
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= Jewish voters
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= Private renter voters
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= Young voters
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Savanta published polls of voters aged between 18 and 25. The 2019 result comes from the British Election Study's estimate of voters aged 18 to 24 and the 2024 result comes from Ipsos' estimate of voters among the same age group.
16–17 year olds
JL Partners polled a sample of 16 and 17 year olds. The voting age in UK elections is 18, therefore none of the individuals polled had the legal right to vote. However, there was an active debate during the campaign on lowering the minimum voting age, and Labour included the policy in their manifesto.
= GB News viewers
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Seat projections
The general election was contested under the first-past the post electoral system in 650 constituencies. 326 seats were needed for a parliamentary majority.
Most polls were reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters did not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons.
= Projections from aggregators
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Various models existed which continually projected election outcomes for the seats in Britain based on the aggregate of polling data. Final predictions of some notable models are tabulated below.
= MRP and SRP polls
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Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) was used by YouGov to predict outcomes for the 2017 and 2019 elections. Multiple polling companies conducted such polling and modelling for the 2024 election, these are tabulated below. Also included is a stacked regression with poststratification (SRP) poll produced by J.L. Partners, the first time such a method has been used for a UK election. All of these polls use sample sizes substantially larger than typical national polls.
These polls were of Britain only, though the reporting of some results include the 18 Northern Irish seats under "Others". Polling companies also differ in their handling of the Speaker's seat, considering it variously as Labour, "Other", or omitting it from the results. Negative values in the rightmost "majority" column below indicate that the party with the most seats would have a plurality of seats, but would not have a majority. The overall vote share values for these polls, where reported, are also included in the tables above.
Exit poll
An exit poll conducted by Ipsos for the BBC, ITV, and Sky News was published at the end of voting at 22:00, predicting the number of seats for each party.
The extent of Labour's victory was projected to be slightly less than seen in the last week of opinion polls, though still a substantial landslide. The exit poll ended up being close to the actual results, apart from the Reform figure which was slightly overestimated.
= BBC updated forecasts
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Throughout the night and into the early hours of 5 July, BBC News updated their forecast, combining the exit poll with the results coming in.
Sub-national poll results
See also
Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
Opinion polling for the next Senedd election
Notes
References
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The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
29 Jan 2025 · Ipsos publishes its first MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) model of the 2024 General Election. Trends Ipsos provides the most long-term and comprehensive set of political polling and social research trends and survey data of all UK polling companies.
All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland election polls.
08 Jul 2024 · The polls told the story of the election campaign, including the prospect of a Labour landslide and the rise of Reform UK as a serious electoral force. As the table below shows, the long-term tendency for the final polls to over-state Labour and under-state Conservative support remains in play.
03 Jul 2024 · Latest UK general election voting intention: 3 July 2024. Percentage range of party support, after adjusting for and/or excluding 'don't know' and 'won't vote'. Ranges given in brackets
24th April 2024 – The result of a General Election Today In late April 2024, the Labour Party maintained a steady 19% poll lead over the Conservatives, largely unchanged from February 2024.
Election Polling contains detailed analysis of UK polling, elections and referendums in the UK. We also provide tools for studying electoral data.
27 Jan 2025 · More in Common's latest UK politician approval rating, biggest issues, and voting intention public opinion polling trackers from the last week. What do we use cookies for? ... Change Pending - the path to the 2024 General Election and beyond. Behind the Voting Intention. The British Seven segments and the next general election. Browse our work.
