- Source: 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election
Presidential elections are expected to be held in November 2025. The elections had been scheduled for December 2024, in order to elect a new president before the term of Umaro Sissoco Embaló ends on 27 February 2025. However, following Embaló's dissolution of parliament in December 2023 and subsequent cancellation of the planned parliamentary elections, the presidential elections were also postponed.
Background
In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló won the presidential election runoff vote against Domingos Simões Pereira, 54% to 46%. Simões Pereira disputed the results. Although neither the supreme court of Guinea-Bissau nor the parliament had given its approval for the official swearing-in ceremony, Embaló had organized an alternative swearing-in ceremony in a hotel in Bissau to announce himself as legal president of Guinea-Bissau. Several politicians in Guinea-Bissau, including prime minister Aristides Gomes, accused Embaló of arranging a coup d'état, although outgoing president Vaz stepped down to allow Embaló to take power.
Embaló dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament on 4 December 2023, saying an "attempted coup" had prevented him from returning home from COP28 climate conference. This was the second early dissolution by Embaló, with his first dissolution of parliament being in 2022, leading to an opposition victory in the 2023 parliamentary election. In response to the dissolution, parliamentary speaker Domingos Simões Pereira accused the president of carrying out a "constitutional coup d'état." Incumbent president Embaló would go on to fire the prime minister Geraldo Martins, who was appointed by the PAIGC-led National Assembly and instead appoint Rui Duarte de Barros by presidential decree.
Embaló, who is eligible to run for a second term, has given contradictory signs about his intentions. In September 2024, after a meeting of the Council of Ministers, he announced that he decided not to run after a conversation with his wife, but in November 2024 he stated his intention to remain as president "for many years", beyond 2030.
Electoral system
The president is elected using the two-round system. Article 33 of Guinea-Bissau's Electoral Law prohibits the publishing of any opinion polls.
Issues
Various opposition parties have criticized incumbent president Embaló, accusing him of authoritarianism and wanting to establish a dictatorship. Beyond the outcome of the elections, the broader narrative in Guinea-Bissau in 2024 will revolve around the imperative of establishing and maintaining momentum for a stable system of governance. Central to this narrative will be the efforts to fortify institutional frameworks that serve as guardrails against the abuse of power.
According to observers, the conditions for elections have not been met due to organisational challenges. One major issue is the expiration of the terms of the commission members responsible for overseeing elections. Typically, these members would be appointed by parliament, however since the parliament has been dissolved, there is no entity in place to facilitate the appointment of new commission members.