• Source: Near-miss effect

The near-miss effect refers to when a player is encouraged to continue playing because the previous try appeared proximal to a win. It occurs primarily in gambling. It occurs due to a higher motivation to continue gambling when the near-miss effect is present.




Psychology


The near-miss effect is boosted by conditional reinforcement and personal control.




= Personal control

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According to a study published in the National Library of Medicine, gamblers have an inflated confidence when they choose their lottery ticket or throw the roulette ball by themselves compared to when another person throws it. For example, craps players have been found to throw the dice harder for a higher roll. This may be an important factor for a gambler to mistake a game of luck for a game of skill.




= Physiological effects

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The near-miss effect stimulates reward-related parts of the brain such as the ventral striatum. Studies have also found a higher heart rate and dopamine transmission in the brain due to the near-miss effect.




= Conditional reinforcement

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The near-miss effect may be caused due to conditional reinforcement, where the stimuli may cause the feeling that the gambler is close to a win. Conditional reinforcement, although only useful in games of skill, may cause the brain to register a win.




Documentation


Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, in 1982, considered a lottery where the winning ticket number is 865304 and there are three ticket holders, with numbers 361204, 965304 and 865305 respectively. They stipulated that the first two ticket holders would not be troubled, whereas the latter would experience frustration due to the near-miss effect.
An experiment on rats used a machine similar to a slot machine to study the near-miss effect. The machine allowed rats to press a lever in which, if all three lights on display flashed, the rats would win a pellet of food; otherwise, the lever would inflict a time penalty. The experiment found that the rats were more likely to press the lever when the won or when two of the three lights flashed (a near-miss).
Different studies have shown that about 30% of near-misses increased the rate of gambling behavour.




= In slot machines

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The near-miss effect is commonly seen in slot machines. For example, in a slot machine where "cherry, cherry, cherry" signals a win, "cherry, cherry, lemon" would be an example of a near miss. Due to this, slot machines have a high rate of near-misses. This may add to their addictive potential.
The evidence for the emotional impact of near-misses is mixed; some studies show no significant results.




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