• Source: P(doom)

P(doom) is a term in AI safety that refers to the probability of catastrophic outcomes (or "doom") as a result of artificial intelligence. The exact outcomes in question differ from one prediction to another, but generally allude to the existential risk from artificial general intelligence.
Originating as an inside joke among AI researchers, the term came to prominence in 2023 following the release of GPT-4, as high-profile figures such as Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio began to warn of the risks of AI. In a 2023 survey, AI researchers were asked to estimate the probability that future AI advancements could lead to human extinction or similarly severe and permanent disempowerment within the next 100 years. The mean value from the responses was 14.4%, with a median value of 5%.




Sample P(doom) values






Criticism


There has been some debate about the usefulness of P(doom) as a term, in part due to the lack of clarity about whether or not a given prediction is conditional on the existence of artificial general intelligence, the time frame, and the precise meaning of "doom".




In popular culture


In 2024, Australian rock band King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard launched their new label, named p(doom) Records.




See also


Existential risk from artificial general intelligence
Statement on AI risk of extinction
AI alignment
AI takeover
AI safety




Notes






References

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