• Source: Planned mass deportation of illegal immigrants under the second presidency of Donald Trump

    • The planned mass deportation of illegal immigrants under the second presidency of Donald Trump had been extensively discussed prior to Trump's win in the 2024 United States presidential election.


    Background




    = 2016 campaign

    =
    In August 2015, during his 2016 campaign, Trump proposed the mass deportation of illegal immigrants as a part of his immigration policy. During his first town hall campaign meeting in Derry, New Hampshire, Trump said that if he were to win the election, then on "[d]ay 1 of my presidency, they're getting out and getting out fast".
    Trump proposed a "Deportation Force" to carry out this plan, modeled after the 1950s-era "Operation Wetback" program during the Eisenhower administration that ended following a congressional investigation.
    In June 2016, Trump stated on Twitter that "I have never liked the media term 'mass deportation'—but we must enforce the laws of the land!" Later in June, Trump stated that he would not characterize his immigration policies as including "mass deportations". However, on August 31, 2016, contrary to earlier reports of a "softening" in his stance, Trump laid out a 10-step plan reaffirming his hardline positions. He reiterated that "anyone who has entered the United States illegally is subject to deportation" with priority given to those who have committed significant crimes and those who have overstayed visas. He noted that all those seeking legalization would have to go home and re-enter the country legally.


    First presidency (2017–2021)


    During Donald Trump’s presidency the number of undocumented immigrants deported decreased drastically. While under Trump's presidency, U.S. Immigration Customs Enforcement has conducted hundreds of raids in workspaces and sent removal orders to families, they are not deporting as many immigrants as were deported under Obama's presidency. In Obama's first three years in office, around 1.18 million people were deported, while around 800,000 deportations took place under Trump in his three years of presidency. In the final year of his presidency Trump deported an additional 186,000 immigrants, bringing his total to just under 1 million for his full presidency.


    2024 campaign


    The New York Times reported that Trump planned "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration", including "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled", and that it "amounts to an assault on immigration on a scale unseen in modern American history". The New York Times also reported that Trump's advisors are preparing a 'blitz' strategy designed to overwhelm immigrant-rights lawyers, and that his plans would rely on existing statutes without the need for new legislation, although such legislation would also likely be attempted. Trump's plans are expected to encounter significant Supreme Court challenges, and engender social and economic toil, especially within the housing, agriculture, and service sectors.
    During rallies, Trump has blurred the distinction between legal and illegal immigrants, and has promised to deport both.
    Trump has stated he will deport between 15 and 20 million people, although the estimated number of undocumented immigrants is only 11 million. The American Immigration Council says that a "highly conservative" estimate Trump's plan would cost at least $315 billion, or $967.9 billion over a decade and be unworkable without massive outdoor detention camps. Economic reports from the Brookings Institution and Peterson Institute for International Economics have found that Trump's plans would result in a decrease in employment for American-born workers and result in "no economic growth over the second Trump administration from this policy alone" while other estimates have it shrinking GDP by 4.2-6.8 percent.
    Trump has also not ruled out separating families with mixed citizenship status. This could affect millions of families, with most undocumented immigrants having lived in the US for more than 16 years.
    Trump has stated that his plan would follow the 'Eisenhower model,' a reference to the 1954 campaign Operation Wetback, stating to a crowd in Iowa: "Following the Eisenhower model, we will carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history." To achieve the goal of deporting millions per year, Trump has stated his intent to expand a form of deportation that does not require due process hearings which would be accomplished by the expedited removal authorities of 8 U.S. Code § 1225; invoking the Alien Enemies Act within the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798; and invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 to allow the military to apprehend migrants and thus bypass the Posse Comitatus Act.
    Trump would reassign federal agents to Immigrations and Customs Enforcement and deputize local police officers and sheriffs, agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Drug Enforcement Administration, and National Guard soldiers volunteered by Republican states which would be sent to blue states.
    Individuals would be placed in massive camps constructed with funds redirected from the military budget in case of any refusal by Congress to appropriate funding. ICE raids would be expanded to include workplace raids and sweeps in public places. Following arrest, Stephen Miller has stated that immigrants would be taken to "large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in Texas" to be held in internment camps prior to deportation. Trump told a rally audience in September 2024 that the deportation effort "will be a bloody story." He has also spoken of rounding up homeless people in blue cities and detaining them in camps. The Trump team will also attempt to overturn the Flores settlement that prevents the indefinite holding of children.

    Trump has promised to reinstate his ban on entry to individuals from certain Muslim-majority nations, and having the Centers for Disease Control reimpose COVID-era restrictions on asylum claims by asserting migrants carry infectious diseases such as the flu, tuberculosis, and scabies. Trump has said he would build more of the border wall, and move thousands of troops currently stationed overseas to the southern border.
    Other proposals include: Revoking temporary protected status to individuals living in the United States, including Afghans who moved to America following the 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, while those who helped U.S. forces would be 're-vetted' to see if they really did; ending birthright citizenship for babies born in the United States to undocumented parents; using coercive diplomacy by making immigration cooperation a condition for any bilateral engagement; reinstating 'Remain in Mexico'; and reviving 'safe third country' status with several nations in Central America, and expanding them to Africa, Asia, and South America.
    Trump's campaign has stated his intention to expel DACA recipients after his previous attempt failed in 2020 by a 5–4 vote in the Supreme Court in Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California. Trump's campaign has not stated whether they will reinstate Trump's former child separation policies.
    In October 2024, Trump proposed a plan for recruiting and retaining U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents; his plan included a 10 percent wage increase for the agents, $10,000 retention and signing bonuses, and hiring 10,000 new agents.


    Post-election



    Following his victory in the 2024 United States presidential election Trump said that he had "no choice" but to commence the mass deportation upon his assumption to power in 2025. Regarding the financial costs, Trump said "When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries and now they're going to go back to those countries because they're not staying here. There is no price tag".
    The former Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement under Trump from January 2017 to June 2018, Thomas Homan, said that he would "run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen" in 2025.
    Following Trump's 2024 election victory, the stock price of private prison companies increased significantly, with GEO Group's CEO calling Trump's second presidency an "unprecedented opportunity" during an earnings call. As of January 2020, 81% of people detained by ICE were held in private prisons, with ICE contracts accounting for 30% of revenue at CoreCivic and GEO Group.
    According to Tom Homan, Director-to-be of ICE, the administration will cut federal funding from states that do not comply with deportation plans.


    Financial cost


    The American Immigration Council estimated the cost of conducting a million deportations at $967.9bn in federal government spending over a decade.


    Economic impact


    Construction, manufacturing, agriculture, service, and childcare are among the sectors that employ large numbers of undocumented immigrants. Adam Tooze said that the planned deportations would cause "a series of rolling shocks to a large part of the U.S. economy" and would also affect people outside those sectors by raising prices. Manuel Cunha Jr., the president of the Nisei Farmers League in California, said that "you wouldn't eat. ... The country will stop, literally stop because the food system won't move." Lack of childcare would prompt some people to leave the workforce.


    Statistics




    Polling




    See also


    Deportation and removal from the United States
    Immigration policy of Donald Trump
    Illegal immigration to the United States
    Illegal immigrant population of the United States
    Racial views of Donald Trump


    References




    External links


    American Immigration Council - Mass Deportation

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