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The 2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Tennessee a safe or likely red state; the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, including by double-digit margins since 2004.
Trump won Tennessee with 60.66% of the vote, almost tied with his 60.72% vote share in 2016. Despite this, Biden got 37.45% of the vote, three points better than Hillary Clinton. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. Tennessee has not supported a Democrat for president since 1996.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Tennessee came from a 69% showing among Southern whites, who made up 84% of the electorate. Similarly, Trump carried white born-again/Evangelical Christians by 86%–12%. The state of Tennessee is entirely covered in the Bible Belt. The only strength Biden showed was with 88% of African-American voters. 65% of voters opposed removing Confederate statues from public places in Tennessee, and these voters backed Trump by 83%–15%.
Primary elections
= Democratic primary
=The Democratic primary was on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.
Former vice president Joe Biden easily decided the primary, winning almost 42% of the vote and 36 delegates and benefitting from overwhelming African-American support, as well as rural support among predominantly white working-class voters. Senator Bernie Sanders took 25% of the vote gaining 22 delegates, while former mayor Michael Bloomberg reached the threshold with slightly more than 15% but was not allocated any statewide delegates due to his withdrawal the next day. Otherwise Biden would have had 33 delegates, Sanders 20 delegates and Bloomberg 10 delegates. Senator Elizabeth Warren received a single district delegate.
= Republican primary
=The Republican primary was on March 3, 2020. Incumbent President Donald Trump won the state in a landslide getting 96.5% of the vote and all 58 delegates
Former Tennessee senator Bob Corker was considered a potential primary opponent for Trump.
General election
= Predictions
== Polling
=Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Polls
= Electoral slates
=These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidates win the state:
= Results
=By county
By congressional district
Trump won 7 of 9 congressional districts.
Analysis
A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.
Winning the state by 708,764 votes, Tennessee gave Trump his largest margin of victory by the number of votes nationally. This exceeded the 631,221-vote margin by which he won in Texas, marking the first time since 1988 (when Florida provided the largest margin of victory) where Texas did not provide the Republican presidential nominee with his widest margin of votes for a statewide victory. Additionally, this is the second consecutive election in which a nominee carried over 60% of Tennessee's vote.
Biden won the same counties as Clinton did: urban Shelby and Davidson counties—anchored by Memphis and Nashville, respectively—as well as majority-Black Haywood County. In addition, Trump performed somewhat better than polls anticipated, as they had Trump leading Biden by 55%–41%. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the presidency without Hardeman County.
Despite this, Biden was able to improve his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, gaining 64.5% of the vote in Davidson County, the best Democratic performance in the county since FDR won 72.1% of the vote in 1944. At the same time, Biden also made gains in the Nashville suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing considerably better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. For example, Biden lost Rutherford County, anchored by Murfreesboro, only by 15.4%, much lower than Clinton's 25.9-point loss in 2016. Additionally, he narrowed Trump's margins in Hamilton County—anchored by Chattanooga, the state's fourth largest city—only losing it by 9.7 points, the best Democratic performance there since Bill Clinton lost the county by 6.5% in 1996, and in Knox County—anchored by Knoxville, the state's third largest city—from a loss of 23.73% in 2016 to 15.02% in 2020. Statewide, Biden won 44.1% of the popular vote, the best Democratic percentage since Carter's 48% in 1976, consequently losing by 2.8 points. This is the first time a Democrat has even garnered 40% of the vote in Rutherford County since 2000, when favorite son Al Gore lost the county by 9.7 points while at the same time losing both his home state and the election.
= By Grand Division
=Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand Divisions—West, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high Black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2016, Trump had won it with 48.93% to Clinton's 47.82%. Democrats had previously won West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.
See also
United States presidential elections in Tennessee
2020 United States presidential election
2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
2020 Tennessee elections
2020 United States elections
Notes
References
External links
Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Tennessee", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"Tennessee: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of Tennessee". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Tennessee at Ballotpedia
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