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Critical transition GudangMovies21 Rebahinxxi LK21
Critical transitions are abrupt shifts in the state of ecosystems, the climate, financial and economic systems or other complex dynamical systems that may occur when changing conditions pass a critical or bifurcation point. As such, they are a particular type of regime shift. Recovery from such shifts may require more than a simple return to the conditions at which a transition occurred, a phenomenon called hysteresis. In addition to natural systems, critical transitions are also studied in psychology, medicine, economics, sociology, military, and several other disciplines.
Early-warning signals
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Significant efforts have been made to identify early-warning signals of critical transitions. Systems approaching a bifurcation point show a characteristic behaviour called critical slowing down leading to an increasingly slow recovery from perturbations. This, in turn, may lead to an increase in (spatial or temporal) autocorrelation and variance, while variance spectra tend to lower frequencies, and the 'direction of critical slowing down' in a system's state space may be indicative of a system's future state when delayed negative feedbacks leading to oscillatory or other complex dynamics are weak. Researchers have explored early-warning signals in lakes, climate dynamics, the Amazon rainforest, forests worldwide, food webs, dry-land transitions and epilepsy attacks.
Examples
Studies show that more than three-quarters of Amazon rainforest has been losing resilience since the early 2000s as measured by CSD and that tropical, arid and temperate forests are substantially losing resilience. It has been proposed that a loss of resilience in forests "can be detected from the increased temporal autocorrelation (TAC) in the state of the system, reflecting a decline in recovery rates due to the critical slowing down (CSD) of system processes that occur at thresholds".
= Flickering
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The above approach (looking for critical slow down) is how most researchers assess if a critical transition is imminent. However, in highly stochastic (random) systems, alternative basins of attraction will be reached well before bifurcation points are reached. Perturbations might therefore cause the system to 'flicker' between the basins of attraction.
Examples
This idea has gained considerable interest in the last few years, somewhat entering the mainstream.
The idea has been applied widely, to studies of ecological resilience (such as eutrophication of a lake
) and to larger systems such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
See also
Tipping points in the climate system
Deforestation and climate change
Ecological resilience
Ecological threshold
Ecosystem collapse
Cascade effect (ecology)
Percolation theory
References
External links
Wolchover, Natalie (18 November 2015). "Nature's Critical Warning System". Quanta Magazine.
"Climate change: Six tipping points 'likely' to be crossed". BBC News. 2022-09-08.
Kata Kunci Pencarian:
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Early-warning signals for critical transitions - Nature
Sep 3, 2009 · Interest in the possibility of critical transitions in the Earth system has been sparked by records of past climate dynamics revealing occasional sharp transitions from one regime to …
Anticipating the occurrence and type of critical transitions
Critical transition can occur in many real-world systems. The ability to forecast the occurrence of transition is of major interest in a range of contexts. Various early warning signals (EWSs) have been developed to anticipate the coming critical …
Anticipating Critical Transitions | Science - AAAS
Oct 19, 2012 · Scheffer et al. (p. 344) review how previously isolated lines of work can be connected, conclude that many critical transitions (such as escape …
Critical transitions in chronic disease: transferring concepts from ...
Aug 1, 2015 · Critical transitions (CT) can occur in complex diseases. Early warning signals (EWS) such as changes in variance can occur before such CTs. EWS might be useful in …
Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong ...
Dec 9, 2015 · Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes …
Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere | Nature
Jun 6, 2012 · Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence.
Early-Warning Signals for Critical Transitions
Oct 1, 2009 · Early warning indicators aim to predict such transitions based on the phenomenon of critical slowing down at bifurcation points found under a constant environment.
Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems
Jul 3, 2021 · We start by introducing the mechanisms that trigger critical transitions, and how they relate to early warning signals (EWS) and mention briefly the conventional measures based on …
What is a critical transition? Everyday examples illustrate that small changes in external conditions – like increasing pull to an elastic band – usually result in smoothresponses to the …
