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Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election GudangMovies21 Rebahinxxi LK21
In the run-up to the 2025 German federal election, which as a snap election will take place on 23 February 2025 instead of 28 September 2025, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Germany. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.
Electoral threshold of 5%
In the runup to the 2025 snap election, four of the eight main parties represented in the Bundestag were at risk of failing to pass the 5% electoral threshold, thus placing the actual outcome in significant uncertainty. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by challenger Friedrich Merz, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) led by challenger Alice Weidel, and the Alliance 90/The Greens led by candidate Robert Habeck are all expected to obtain a voting volume that is significantly higher than the qualifying 5% threshold.
Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to party lists that either pass the "five percent hurdle" of federally valid second votes, or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, this granted Die Linke (The Left) full proportional representation as it won three constituencies despite receiving 4.9% of second-ballot votes. In 2022, this three-constituency rule was abolished, but was reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union (CSU) which competes only in Bavaria and, in the 2021 German federal elections, only passed the threshold with 5.2% of second-ballot votes nationwide but won 45 out of 46 constituencies in Bavaria. As the CDU/CSU "Union" forms one faction in the parliament, both "sister parties" are combined in most polls, but some show separate numbers.
Polling around 5% are the Free Democratic Party (FDP) that was part of the "Traffic Light Coalition" whose collapse led to the snap election, Die Linke, and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) which split off from The Left in 2023.
Also shown in the polls are the Free Voters (FW) which are present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Only three other parties have managed to get approved in all states, and several others run in selected states. They are all summed up as "others".
Reliability of pollsters
The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and American-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.
Poll results
= Graphical summary
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=
= 2024
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= 2023
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= 2022
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= 2021
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= CDU and CSU
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= Scenario polls
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New party scenarios
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht
Boris Palmer list
Leadership scenarios
Boris Pistorius as SPD chancellor candidate
Olaf Scholz as SPD chancellor candidate
Friedrich Merz as CDU/CSU chancellor candidate
Hendrik Wüst as CDU/CSU chancellor candidate
Markus Söder as CDU/CSU chancellor candidate
Sahra Wagenknecht as Linke lead candidate
Other scenarios
National-wide CSU
CDU/CSU open for cooperation with AfD
By state
= Baden-Württemberg
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= Bavaria
=
= Berlin
=
= Brandenburg
=
= Hamburg
=
= Hesse
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= Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
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= North Rhine-Westphalia
=
= Rhineland-Palatinate
=
= Saxony
=
= Saxony-Anhalt
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= Schleswig-Holstein
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= Thuringia
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By Western and Eastern Germany
= Western Germany
=
= Eastern Germany
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= Chancellor candidates and lead candidates
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These following polls gauge voters' opinions on the parties' Chancellor candidates: Olaf Scholz for the Social Democratic Party, Friedrich Merz for CDU/CSU (Union), Robert Habeck for Alliance 90/The Greens, Alice Weidel for the Alternative for Germany and Sahra Wagenknecht for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance as well as the lead candidate of the Free Democratic Party, Christian Lindner. Before their nominations they were also compared with each other as possible candidates in previous polls.
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel
Scholz vs. Merz
Merz vs. Habeck
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht
Scholz vs. Weidel
Merz vs. Weidel
Scholz vs. Habeck
Weidel vs. Wagenknecht
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht vs. Lindner
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Weidel
= Speculative Chancellor candidates
=
These following speculative polls were conducted before or shortly after the announcement of each party's Chancellor candidate, and gauged opinion on various politicians who were considered to be plausible candidates for their respective parties.
Pistorius vs. Merz
Pistorius vs. Merz vs. Habeck
Pistorius vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel
Scholz vs. Söder
Scholz vs. Wüst
Scholz vs. Söder vs. Habeck
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Baerbock vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Baerbock
Pistorius vs. Merz vs. Baerbock vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht
Pistorius vs. Söder
Scholz vs. Merz vs. Baerbock vs. Weidel
Scholz vs. Günther
Scholz vs. Röttgen
Scholz vs. Braun
Scholz vs. Laschet
Scholz vs. Kretschmer
Preferred coalition
Constituency projections
With the new electoral reform, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities.
= Constituency pluralities
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= By probability
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= Second place
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Notes
References
External links
Wahlrecht.de (in German)
pollytix-Wahltrend (in German)
DAWUM Wahltrend (in German)
X: @Wahlen_DE (in German)
Kata Kunci Pencarian:
Germany election 2025 tracker: who's ahead in the polls? | The Economist
Opinion polling for the next German federal election - Wikipedia
Outcome of the 2025 German federal election : r/imaginaryelections
German national election polling 2000-2018 : germany
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2025 German Election: What Next? : r/imaginaryelections
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2025 German Election: What Next? : r/imaginaryelections
German Map 2025 - Fredi Jo-Anne
2025 German Election- The Erosion of the Firewall : r/imaginaryelections
Next German Election based on lastest polling : r/imaginaryelections
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