- 2025 Australian federal election
- Candidates of the 2025 Australian federal election
- Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election
- Pre-election pendulum for the 2025 Australian federal election
- Electorate opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election
- 2022 Australian federal election
- 2004 Australian federal election
- Results of the 2022 Australian federal election (House of Representatives)
- 2026 Victorian state election
- 2021 Western Australian state election
pre election pendulum for the 2025 australian federal election
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The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election" target="_blank">election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."
Some margins may differ from the results at the 2022 federal election" target="_blank">election or by-elections that have occurred following that election" target="_blank">election. In these cases, the margins used are predictions (by Antony Green) based on the new boundaries following redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia. The newly created Division of Bullwinkel is also included on this pendulum with a predicted margin as no election" target="_blank">election results yet exist for the division.
The names listed in the tables refer to the currently elected members. Members in italics have announced their retirement at this election" target="_blank">election.